About Me

Name: The Reactionary...
Location: Hendersonville, NC
Biography
Loading...

Create Your Own Blog Find Other Townhall Blogs

Comments

Blog Roll

Swine Flu: Mini-Update

I just found this article on Bloomberg.com regarding the H1N1 Swine Flu; the article is entitled: "Swine Flu Is Spreading Wider Than Official Data Show (Update2)", and this article is nothing more than scare tactics and sensationalist journalism at its worst. It might take a trained eye to catch some of this stuff and interpret it, but that's what I'm here for. In any case the first little bit of the article reads:
Swine flu is spreading more widely than official figures indicate, with outbreaks in Europe and Asia showing it's gained a foothold in at least three regions.
This first statement is meant to frighten you, meant to lead you in and make you believe that the swine flu is a serious concern - or at least more or a concern than the typical seasonal flu. The italicized portion is the real scare tactic... in reality it's actually quite an innocuous statement, and is explained in the very next paragraph/statement:
One in 20 cases is being officially reported in the U.S., meaning more than 100,000 people have probably been infected nationwide with the new H1N1 flu strain, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Sounds scary, doesn't it? In actuality, it's not only not a bad thing - it is in fact a good thing, and here is why. In my previous swine flu update, I provided some statistics regarding Case Fatality Ratios (CFR's) for not only past 'serious' flu outbreaks, but also for the seasonal flu, and this current swine flu outbreak, rather than reproducing these statistics here it is easier to simply quote this other post:
...the CFR is the best estimate or description of a disease's virulence. Estimates for the CFR of the seasonal flu are approximately 0.1%. The 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic has been estimated to have a CFR ranging from 2% to 20%, depending on which sources you check, but is most commonly given as 2.5%. This particular virus, depending on which statistics you look at. Considering only the number of deaths per infected individual, the USA, Mexico, and worldwide have CFR's of 0.110%, 1.97%, and 0.78% respectively. These CFR's are likely overestimated as well; it's reasonable to assume that the actual number of cases is higher – probably significantly higher – than the reported number of cases.
As the quote above indictates, the CFR's that I have calculated are actually likely to be overestimated by at least an order of magnitude, or as suggested above as much as 20 times. If I recalculate CFR's based on an underestimate of 20 fold, the numbers as of today for the USA, Mexico, and the entire globe are 0.00739%, 0.09635%, and 0.036525%, respectively. In the worst case scenario, Mexico, based on the most recent swine flu update from the WHO, the approximate CFR is 0.09635%, under the value typically estimated for the seasonal flu. If you read the article a bit further, the prognosis is even more hopeful:
In the U.K., the virus may be 300 times more widespread than health authorities have said, the Independent on Sunday reported yesterday.
Or based on the most recent numbers of 137 cases and 0 reported deaths, the actual and estimated CFR's are zero, given the underestimation of the case number, the number is less than in the US or Mexico when each of those countries had a comparable number of cases 0.709% and 5.769% for the US and Mexico, respectively. Even more good news:
Japan, which has reported the most cases in Asia, began reopening schools at the weekend after health officials said serious medical complications had not emerged in those infected.
The statement that follows attempts to frighten the reader once again:
The virus is now spreading in the community in Australia, Jim Bishop, the nation's chief medical officer, said yesterday. "I think we will see the number rise," Bishop told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio today after confirming the nation's 17th case and saying test results are pending on 41 others.
The flu virus spreads, and as it spreads, the number of cases rise; this is what's expected of the flu virus, or for the most part, any easily transmitted virus. As the virus makes its way around the planet, more people are infected. Nothing scary about that - or at least nothing more scary than the seasonal flu. The statement that truly drives home the point that - thus far - there is nothing to fear from the dreaded H1N1 swine flu:
Most of those infected experience an illness similar to that of seasonal flu. The main difference is that the new H1N1 strain is persisting outside the Northern Hemisphere winter.
For the most part the rest of the article simply cites statistics about the virus - all of which suggest that this particular virus is of no more concern than the typical seasonal flu.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive
« Previous1Next »